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Small Steps Into China

Portfolio Manager Winnie Chwang says China’s reopening may be bumpy but it should unlock the value suppressed in smaller companies.

There was little shelter for investors in 2022, in what was both a remarkable and challenging year in the markets.

The environment soured early with inflation, already in the system, exacerbated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent pressure on energy prices. There were few places to find cover and no asset class was left unscathed.

That said, the trajectory of Chinese equity markets felt different from broader indices. Inflation played less of a role than in the West although the impact of energy prices has certainly been felt. Instead, we have been swimming in choppier waters with the attractive fundamentals of Chinese companies butting heads with a myriad of other headwinds.

Headwinds and perceptions

Perception risk was, and still is, a big issue for China, particularly through the lens of a global investor.

Global tensions over China’s relationship with Taiwan were present through much of 2022, stoked in part by the Ukraine conflict. Additionally, China has been on the receiving end of specific trade restrictions from the U.S, a further escalation of already tensed relations between the two economic powers. Fortunately, talks between the two nations are unfreezing, with President Xi and President Biden meeting in Bali in November.

What has been more challenging, however, has been the impact of China’s zero-COVID policy which has seen swathes of the country plunged into lockdown for weeks at a time. Some areas of the market have proven robust but others have been impacted negatively by the policy. For instance, the real estate sector has endured a difficult period as contracted sales have slumped, further adding woes to developers who are already strapped for cash. Consumption has taken a hit as well, as the strain of mass lockdowns have affected consumers both psychologically and economically. China’s recent lifting of many of its pandemic policies and its firm pivot to living with COVID from zero-COVID is to be welcomed from an economic standpoint though the abrupt manner of the transition will bring challenges in the short term for China’s health services and daily life generally amid an inevitable rise in COVID rates.

Fundamental drivers

Despite the disruptions China’s domestic economy has faced, several allocations within the Matthews Asia Funds China Small Companies Fund have performed over the past year. The portfolio seeks to invest in small innovative and efficient growth companies that stand to benefit from secular growth trends.

In terms of absolute performance, several healthcare names – including those in biotech and medical devices performed well for the strategy given the outlook of less severe price cuts and the longer-term opportunity for healthcare innovation within the country.

"In 2023, in what will be the Year of the Rabbit, we are looking at two key catalysts for China’s equity markets.” Portfolio Manager Winnie Chwang

Some of the Fund’s exposure within the solar tech sector has also been beneficial, and we see this space as a longer-term theme as China reorients towards energy self-sufficiency. Elsewhere, several of our positions which benefit from increased robotics and automation in China’s increasingly modern factories have performed well and remain long-term components of the portfolio.

Our allocation towards real estate, however, has been detrimental to performance, due to the overall suppression of the market in China. We do, however, believe that valuations are too depressed to ignore and the sector will be of net benefit once the policy environment becomes more supportive.

The portfolio also holds some small tech companies based in Taiwan which, despite favorable valuations, have suffered due to the geopolitical tensions between China and the U.S. as well as concerns about global semiconductor cycles. But like Chinese real estate, we think the long-term fundamentals of this sector are intact and will recover as political sentiment as well as more efficient inventory digestion of semiconductor components progress.

Source: Factset Research Systems as of 31/12/2022

Investment catalysts

So in 2023, in what will be the Year of the Rabbit in the Chinese Zodiac, will we see a recovery in the economy? For the Chinese equity markets, we are looking at two key catalysts.

Despite its intentions, zero-COVID has undoubtedly been detrimental to markets and a severe brake to the domestic economy. The lifting of the policy will be welcomed by investors, both in China and internally, as it should unlock the suppressed value hidden behind the mass lockdowns and travel restrictions. 

The second catalyst is China’s refocus on its growth economy, supported by economic easing opportunities.. While the U.S. is forecast to continue its monetary tightening into 2023 and Europe faces recession, China is in the unique position to be able to consider easing its monetary policy and targeted stimulus could be possible. Doing so will likely make China unique amidst many of its major peers, which are steadfastly on track for higher interest rates.

Of course, we are mindful that many of the challenges of 2022 have not yet passed. We cannot speculate on the near-term economic impact of the end of China’s zero-COVID policy. Likewise, geopolitics remains difficult to account for, although having borne the brunt of trade restrictions with the U.S., we anticipate that Beijing will deploy a renewed focus on self-sufficiency. Looking forward, China may well seek to limit its reliance on imports from international markets which may in turn provide further opportunities for the portfolio.

We enter the year with optimism. The fundamentals that made China attractive to us throughout 2022 remain in place and the headwinds which have blown against us now appear to be easing. There’s light at the end of the tunnel. With our portfolio positioned to benefit from China’s re-opening, both domestically and internationally, we look forward to the opportunities it may bring.

 

Winnie Chwang
Portfolio Manager
Matthews Asia

 

Please refer to the Risk Considerations for more details of the risk factors of the Fund.

The Fund is a sub-fund of Matthews Asia Funds, an open end umbrella fund with variable capital and incorporated with limited liability under the laws of Luxembourg. NOT FOR SALE IN THE U.S. OR TO U.S. PERSONS. This document does not constitute or contain an offer, solicitation or investment advice with respect to the purchase of the Fund described herein or any security. This information is not to be construed as a prospectus, a public offering or an offering memorandum as defined under applicable securities legislation.

Matthews Asia is the brand for Matthews International Capital Management, LLC and its direct and indirect subsidiaries.

The information contained herein has been derived from sources believed to be reliable and accurate at the time of compilation, however, no representation or warranty (express or implied) is made, including, without limitation, that the information is complete or timely.  Matthews Asia and its affiliates do not accept any liability for losses either direct or consequential caused by the use of this information. Information contained herein is sourced from Matthews Asia and as of the report date unless otherwise stated.

The views and information discussed herein are as of the report date, are subject to change and may not reflect current views. The views expressed represent an assessment of market conditions at a specific point in time, are opinions only and should not be relied upon as investment advice regarding a particular investment or markets in general. Such information does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell specific securities or investment vehicles.

Investors should carefully consider the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses of the Fund before making an investment decision. The current prospectus, Supplement for Hong Kong Investors, Product Key Facts Statements ("Hong Kong Offering Document") or other offering documents contain this and other information and can be obtained by visiting hk.matthewsasia.com.  Please read the Hong Kong Offering Document or other offering documents carefully for details including risk factors before investing.  Prospective investors should consult professional legal, tax and financial advisers as to the suitability of any investment in light of your particular circumstances and applicable citizenship, residence or domicile. Fees and expenses vary among Funds and share classes. Portfolio characteristics for the Fund may vary from time to time from what is shown.

This document is issued by Matthews Global Investors (Hong Kong) Limited and has not been reviewed by the Securities and Futures Commission in Hong Kong.

The MSCI China Index is a free float–adjusted market capitalization–weighted index of Chinese equities that includes China-affiliated corporations and H shares listed on the Hong Kong Exchange, and B shares listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges. The MSCI China Small Cap Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization-weighted small cap index of the Chinese equity securities markets, including H shares listed on the Hong Kong exchange, B shares listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges, Hong Kong-listed securities known as Red Chips (issued by entities owned by national or local governments in China) and P Chips (issued by companies controlled by individuals in China and deriving substantial revenues in China), and foreign listings (e.g., ADRs). Indices are for comparative purposes only and it is not possible to invest directly in an index.

 

 

IMPORTANT INFORMATION

The views and information discussed in this report are as of the date of publication, are subject to change and may not reflect current views. The views expressed represent an assessment of market conditions at a specific point in time, are opinions only and should not be relied upon as investment advice regarding a particular investment or markets in general. Such information does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell specific securities or investment vehicles. Investment involves risk. Investing in international and emerging markets may involve additional risks, such as social and political instability, market illiquidity, exchange-rate fluctuations, a high level of volatility and limited regulation. Investing in small- and mid-size companies is more risky and volatile than investing in large companies as they may be more volatile and less liquid than larger companies. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The information contained herein has been derived from sources believed to be reliable and accurate at the time of compilation, but no representation or warranty (express or implied) is made as to the accuracy or completeness of any of this information. Matthews Asia and its affiliates do not accept any liability for losses either direct or consequential caused by the use of this information.